Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:48:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D9 0xd9ed…d971 sports 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$70 (+13%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate74%43W / 15L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$32
14 days+$47
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$59
other 26% −$2
world 3% +$11
politics 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +19.9% +8.5% 77% 62% +7.4%
≤30d 32 +9.7% -0.8% 72% 66% +6.4%
≤90d 57 +13.7% +2.9% 74% 65% +5.9%
all 58 +13.7% +2.9% 74% 66% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 66% +5.9%
10% -7.0% 48% -4.2%
15% -16.0% 33% -13.5%
20% -24.2% 24% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses43 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage106d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 +$5 +17%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $60 +$20 +32%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $30 −$17 -56%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $30 +$2 +7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $55 +$6 +11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$10 +53%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4 +$3 +76%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 +$1 +57%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $3 +$1 +24%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 $0 -12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $28 +$25 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $7 +$1 +12%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5 Jun 11 $7 +$1 +16%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4 +$3 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $7 +$3 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Jun 09 $20 +$6 +28%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $6 −$2 -28%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $6 −$6 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $5 +$1 +26%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $5 +$2 +40%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 27 $10 +$3 +27%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 26 $5 +$3 +65%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 204.5 May 26 $6 +$2 +34%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 24 $3 −$3 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $3 +$4 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 23 $4 +$2 +59%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 20 $5 +$2 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 210.5 May 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 14 $7 $0 +6%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $5 −$5 -99%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $2 $0 +13%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score May 09 $3 $0 +14%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $6 +$1 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 07 $2 $0 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 04 $2 +$1 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 11h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $60 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 67¢ $5 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 49¢ $8 18h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $30 18h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $30 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 68¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $55 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $3 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 3d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 95¢ $2 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 65¢ $3 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $3 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $3 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $28 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $29 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 8d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $4 8d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 81¢ $5 9d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $7 9d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.18 · official $30.18 (match) · 124 history records