Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D9
0xd9ed…66fc
crypto · 41 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$161 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$161 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage25d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 47¢ 100¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+113%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on May 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $59 −$21 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $12 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 26 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 26 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 26 $49 −$25 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 26 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 26 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 25 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 25 $26 −$16 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 19 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 19 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 19 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 19 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 19 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 19 $12 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 19 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 19 $44 +$13 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 19 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 19 $33 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 19 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 19 $41 −$11 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 19 $21 +$17 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 19 $20 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 19 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 19 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 19 $52 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 19 $83 −$39 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$162
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -11.0% -19.4% 40% 20% -36.4%
≤30d 40 -19.8% -27.5% 40% 25% -32.2%
≤90d 40 -19.8% -27.5% 40% 25% -32.2%
all 40 -19.8% -27.5% 40% 25% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 25% -32.2%
10% -34.4% 22% -38.7%
15% -40.7% 15% -44.6%
20% -46.6% 12% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.36 · official $29.36 (match) · 185 history records