Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D9
0xd9eb…75ce
crypto · 1384 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$45 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$384 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$52
Realized+$384
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses662 / 578
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1240 / 1384
History coverage156d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 21 History 1240 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$7
14 days−$2
30 days+$370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? No 80¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by June 30? No 75¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 76¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 83¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 80¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? No 68¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? No 59¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 50¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? No 51¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 40¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 43¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Up 45¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? No 22¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +83%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +124%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $3 $0 -1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $3 $0 -9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 10 $3 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $3 $0 -7%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $3 $0 -5%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +21%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $3 +$3 +90%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$5 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$5 +159%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 +$3 +109%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $3 +$2 +65%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $3 +$4 +124%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $3 +$3 +105%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$8 +123%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 +$6 +97%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 +$5 +84%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 07 $3 +$2 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% +$388
sports 4% +$14
other 1% −$16
politics 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? BUY No 59¢ $3 1m
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY No 44¢ $2 1h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY No 50¢ $3 1h
US recession by end of 2026? BUY No 84¢ $4 1h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian BUY No 75¢ $4 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 51¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 40¢ $2 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 80¢ $4 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 83¢ $4 9h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $4 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 12h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $3 13h
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 14h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 14h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $4 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 16h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 16h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $2 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 17h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 43¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +0.6% -9.0% 45% 45% -5.3%
≤30d 1138 +7.2% -3.0% 53% 52% -2.8%
≤90d 1138 +7.2% -3.0% 53% 52% -2.8%
all 1240 +6.6% -3.5% 53% 52% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 52% -4.4%
10% -12.8% 50% -13.6%
15% -21.2% 48% -21.9%
20% -28.9% 45% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.40 · official $52.24 (match) · 3259 history records