Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D9 0xd9e9…e343 crypto 228 markets active 1h ago coverage 353d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,004 (+13%) realized +$1,006 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate66%150W / 76L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$392
7 days+$347
14 days+$1,094
30 days+$1,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$751
crypto 11% −$17
other 8% −$78
world 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +43.6% +29.9% 70% 70% +36.4%
≤30d 44 +11.0% +0.4% 55% 55% +10.6%
≤90d 134 -10.5% -19.0% 58% 40% +5.1%
all 226 -7.3% -16.1% 66% 36% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 36% -0.7%
10% -24.1% 26% -10.2%
15% -31.5% 19% -18.9%
20% -38.2% 15% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$29 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

353d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized+$1,006
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses150 / 76
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions2
Markets (closed)226 / 228
History coverage353d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $72 $71 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $179 +$98 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $61 +$57 +93%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $86 +$109 +126%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $71 +$56 +79%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $33 +$83 +254%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $80 +$51 +65%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $63 −$62 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $29 −$29 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $44 −$43 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $42 +$27 +64%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $112 −$110 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $182 +$108 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $152 −$7 -5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $220 +$67 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $213 +$149 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $18 +$21 +114%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $246 −$8 -3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $193 +$62 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $100 +$232 +231%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 −$25 -64%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $117 −$116 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $43 −$41 -96%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $86 +$115 +132%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $200 −$58 -29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $245 +$145 +59%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $180 +$70 +39%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $193 +$199 +103%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $206 +$73 +35%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $192 +$103 +54%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $173 −$167 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $257 −$252 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $221 +$206 +93%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $174 +$55 +32%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $81 +$181 +224%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -22%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $98 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $93 −$89 -95%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $186 +$116 +62%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $158 −$150 -95%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $66 +$101 +153%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $102 −$99 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 30 $34 −$34 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 14 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $76 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $73 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $179 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 9h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $193 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $61 10h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $127 12h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $84 12h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $2 12h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $86 12h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 53¢ $32 12h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $33 13h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $71 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $80 40h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 35¢ $63 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $44 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 19¢ $69 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $42 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $112 9d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $290 9d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $182 9d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $13 9d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 52¢ $145 10d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 53¢ $152 10d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $287 10d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $68 10d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $151 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.99 · official $144.99 (match) · 576 history records