Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd9e7…4cde world 122 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$5,955 (+4%) realized +$3,352 · open +$2,603
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate80%78W / 20L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,199per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$31,402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days+$193
14 days+$5,298
30 days+$5,298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$146
politics 29% +$4,045
other 12% +$1,195
economics 5% +$96
finance 1% +$13
crypto 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +14.9% +3.9% 100% 20% -6.3%
≤30d 27 +15.4% +4.4% 96% 37% +5.8%
≤90d 69 +8.1% -2.2% 83% 36% -3.7%
all 98 +27.7% +15.5% 80% 34% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.5% 34% -7.4%
10% +4.5% 20% -16.2%
15% -5.6% 13% -24.3%
20% -14.9% 12% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$947) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +44% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$360 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$31,402
Realized+$3,352
Unrealized+$2,603
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses78 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions24
Markets (closed)98 / 122
History coverage111d
Avg bet$1,199
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $4,088 $4,674 +$586 (+14%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 71¢ 88¢ $3,386 $4,200 +$814 (+24%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,649 $2,680 +$31 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 71¢ 93¢ $1,919 $2,506 +$587 (+31%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $2,275 $2,459 +$184 (+8%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $2,175 $2,212 +$38 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $1,962 $1,974 +$12 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $1,842 $1,926 +$84 (+5%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,476 $1,484 +$8 (+1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 94¢ 99¢ $1,226 $1,290 +$64 (+5%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $971 $981 +$10 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 97¢ 93¢ $966 $932 −$34 (-4%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $836 $885 +$49 (+6%)
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? No 77¢ 84¢ $481 $531 +$50 (+10%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $505 $509 +$4 (+1%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 97¢ $476 $487 +$11 (+2%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 70¢ 84¢ $350 $418 +$68 (+19%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $306 $309 +$3 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $301 $303 +$2 (+1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 61¢ 84¢ $209 $288 +$78 (+37%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $186 $187 +$1 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $86 $94 +$8 (+9%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 58¢ 22¢ $87 $32 −$55 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $235 +$166 +71%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $113 +$3 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 13 $2,994 +$6 +0%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 10 $1,982 +$18 +1%
Will The Alternative be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will Conservative People’s Party be part of the next Government of Den Jun 04 $75 +$17 +23%
Will Liberal Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $94 +$6 +7%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Jun 04 $237 +$23 +10%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Jun 04 $273 +$17 +6%
Will Denmark Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $317 +$11 +4%
Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $160 +$222 +138%
Will Naleraq be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $392 +$4 +1%
Will Inuit Ataqatigiit be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $527 +$57 +11%
Will Danish People’s Party be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $555 +$30 +5%
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $456 +$261 +57%
Will Citizens’ Party be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $765 +$33 +4%
Will Danish Social Liberal Party be part of the next Government of Den Jun 04 $640 +$104 +16%
Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $772 +$16 +2%
Will Moderates be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $923 +$38 +4%
Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $922 +$40 +4%
Will Union Party be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $3,377 +$443 +13%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $6,117 +$1,540 +25%
Will the Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands) be part of the next G Jun 04 $8,339 +$2,240 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $183 −$83 -45%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $726 +$74 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 21 $70 +$9 +13%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $31 +$19 +60%
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? May 03 $59 +$41 +70%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by April 30? May 03 $104 +$16 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 03 $166 +$4 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 03 $480 +$20 +4%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 03 $962 +$24 +2%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? Apr 29 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Pia Olsen Dyhr be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 20 Apr 23 $31 +$2 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 14 $2,229 −$1,229 -55%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $10,404 −$404 -4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $328 +$772 +235%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Apr 07 $5,460 +$11 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $2,906 +$94 +3%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 03 $854 −$854 -100%
Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation? Apr 03 $74 +$16 +22%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 2, 2026 Apr 03 $362 +$3 +1%
Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Apr 01 $194 +$29 +15%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $79 +$21 +27%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $193 +$7 +4%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Apr 01 $151 +$49 +32%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $413 +$31 +8%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (March 29) Apr 01 $999 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 72¢ $8 6m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 42m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $200 55m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 72¢ $147 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $465 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 72¢ $350 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $966 6h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $718 6h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $210 7h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $67 7h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $1,190 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $936 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,940 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $426 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $14 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $46 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $0 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $0 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $375 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $22 33h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $425 33h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 95¢ $425 34h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 95¢ $51 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $186 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $153 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $201 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,402.10 · official $31,413.32 (match) · 844 history records