Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:36:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D9 0xd9e7…4dc1 crypto 371 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (243 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,163 (-10%) realized −$1,147 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%114W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day243.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$273
7 days−$930
14 days−$1,319
30 days−$1,319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,334
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (243 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 317 -7.7% -16.5% 34% 32% -19.5%
≤30d 369 -8.8% -17.5% 31% 28% -20.0%
≤90d 369 -8.8% -17.5% 31% 28% -20.0%
all 369 -8.8% -17.5% 31% 28% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover243.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 28% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 27% -27.7%
15% -32.6% 26% -34.7%
20% -39.2% 25% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$13 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1,147
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses114 / 255
Open positions2
Markets (closed)369 / 371
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day243.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 369 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 51¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$12 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$19 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $55 +$8 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $45 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$26 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $69 −$53 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $113 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $65 +$58 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$8 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$19 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $68 +$72 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$15 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$7 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.85 · official $8.63 · 3500 history records