Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D9 0xd9e7…9408 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,926 (+58%) realized +$2,112 · open −$186

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip

Net edge+21%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%8W / 9L

Drawdown22%max

Avg bet$176per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Fees−$57est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1,697

7 days+$1,650

14 days+$1,650

30 days+$1,550

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+20.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+88.9%	+70.9%	67%	67%	+44.7%
≤30d	17	+33.3%	+20.6%	47%	47%	+39.6%
≤90d	17	+33.3%	+20.6%	47%	47%	+39.6%
all	17	+33.3%	+20.6%	47%	47%	+39.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+20.6%	47%	+39.6%
10%	+9.1%	47%	+26.3%
15%	-1.5%	47%	+14.1%
20%	-11.1%	47%	+2.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 39% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +33% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -5% → late +68% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$334 vs −$124 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage

Net worth$281

Realized+$2,112

Unrealized−$186

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses8 / 9

Est. fees paid−$57

Open positions2

Markets (closed)17 / 19

History coverage17d

Avg bet$176

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown22%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	Over	51¢	48¢	$230	$218	−$11 (-5%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	36¢	10¢	$237	$63	−$175 (-74%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$256	−$252	-98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$250	+$380	+152%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5	Jun 17	$400	−$400	-100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$250	+$249	+100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$195	−$195	-100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$263	+$434	+165%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$280	+$520	+186%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$360	+$440	+122%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$280	+$521	+186%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$176	−$173	-99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	Jun 15	$20	+$80	+400%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Jun 15	$30	+$46	+156%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 03	$27	−$27	-99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1	Jun 03	$20	−$20	-98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta	Jun 03	$20	−$20	-98%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Jun 01	$24	−$23	-97%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June?	Jun 01	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	36¢	$242	1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	42¢	$256	4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$233	4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	40¢	$400	5h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$499	5h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	50¢	$134	6h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	50¢	$59	6h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	50¢	$57	6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	39¢	$250	6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	32¢	$37	8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	32¢	$2	8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	32¢	$156	8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$697	8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	37¢	$263	18h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	35¢	$275	21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	35¢	$0	21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	35¢	$3	21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	35¢	$1	21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	35¢	$1	21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	35¢	$1	21h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$360	21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	35¢	$176	30h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	35¢	$7	30h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	35¢	$3	30h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	35¢	$94	30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	54¢	$176	2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	BUY Yes	39¢	$30	9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	BUY Yes	20¢	$20	9d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	BUY GamerLegion	47¢	$14	14d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	BUY GamerLegion	47¢	$13	14d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.83 · official $280.83 (match) · 41 history records