Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:18:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D9 0xd9e6…f893 crypto 1387 markets active 0h ago coverage 263d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 262d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$26,425 (-18%) realized −$26,425 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%628W / 830L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 263d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$15,038
sports 6% −$3,732
other 0% +$40
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -36.6% -42.7% 19% 19% -88.2%
≤30d 117 -34.0% -40.3% 23% 23% -83.3%
≤90d 271 -20.5% -28.0% 37% 35% -69.0%
all 1458 -8.8% -17.5% 43% 41% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 41% -36.5%
10% -25.4% 40% -42.6%
15% -32.6% 36% -48.2%
20% -39.2% 29% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$124 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26,425
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses628 / 830
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1458 / 1387
History coverage263d ⚠
Avg bet$108
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1458 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - October 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 1, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $528 −$563 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $700 −$700 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $1,209 −$1,209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 4, 5AM ET Jun 25 $141 +$1,148 +812%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $398 −$398 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 5, 12AM ET Jun 25 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $156 −$156 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $1,081 −$1,081 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $358 −$358 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $180 −$180 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 1, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 1, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $243 −$243 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $272 −$272 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 4, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $400 −$400 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $800 −$800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $331 −$331 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $1,113 −$1,113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 10PM ET Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $437 −$437 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $358 −$358 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 10PM ET Jun 25 $1,155 −$1,155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $89 −$89 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $109 −$109 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $874 −$874 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $500 −$500 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $400 −$400 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $179 −$179 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $202 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $177 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $264 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $212 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $105 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $179 47m
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 42¢ $176 47m
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 47¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $407 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $159 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $208 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $208 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $154 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $154 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $89 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $89 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $77 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $114 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $112 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records