Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:25:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9e2…d5b2 sports 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$719 (-21%) realized −$718 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%17W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$310
14 days−$472
30 days−$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$319
other 10% −$288
crypto 9% −$64
world 6% −$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 31 -25.6% -32.7% 26% 26% -29.8%
≤90d 73 -9.5% -18.1% 23% 23% -34.0%
all 73 -9.5% -18.1% 23% 23% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 23% -34.0%
10% -25.9% 23% -40.3%
15% -33.1% 23% -46.1%
20% -39.7% 23% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$36 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$718
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses17 / 56
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage85d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $96 −$95 -98%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $151 −$148 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $152 +$100 +66%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $184 +$172 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$102 +101%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$22 +211%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $51 +$155 +303%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $101 −$1 -1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $30 +$154 +507%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $66 −$65 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $85 +$48 +56%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $58 −$55 -96%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 10 $121 −$101 -83%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $20 −$5 -26%
SC Freiburg vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Apr 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $53 −$52 -99%
Spread: AS Roma (-2.5) Apr 10 $34 +$20 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 09 $47 +$58 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 07 $30 +$30 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $96 4d
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 7¢ $103 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $151 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $253 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $152 7d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 8d
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY United States 19¢ $102 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $356 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $184 9d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 9d
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 9d
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 10d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 10d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $204 10d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 10d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $56 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 35¢ $102 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 35¢ $102 12d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 13d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 13d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 13d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $20 13d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $0 13d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 13d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $206 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.94 · official $98.94 (match) · 142 history records