Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:02:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9e0…05f2 sports 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3374 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$970,768 (+313%) realized +$971,542 · open −$775
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%57W / 420L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$3,075per market
Trades / day3374.0pace
Fees−$1,944est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$26,076now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$39,503
other 43% +$58,237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3374 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-66.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 477 -62.7% -66.3% 12% 9% +9.4%
≤30d 477 -62.7% -66.3% 12% 9% +9.4%
≤90d 477 -62.7% -66.3% 12% 9% +9.4%
all 477 -62.7% -66.3% 12% 9% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3374.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -66.3% 9% +9.4%
10% -69.5% 7% -1.1%
15% ← realistic here -72.5% 6% -10.6%
20% -75.2% 6% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late -94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
33.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,838 vs −$100 · ×18.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$26,076
Realized+$971,542
Unrealized−$775
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses57 / 420
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1,944
Open positions52
Markets (closed)477 / 101
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$3,075
Trades / day3374.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 477 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings Minnesota Lynx 68¢ 92¢ $1,040 $1,409 +$370 (+36%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? No 80¢ 81¢ $1,208 $1,230 +$22 (+2%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ 69¢ $1,093 $1,097 +$3 (+0%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers 56¢ 57¢ $893 $915 +$22 (+2%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 63¢ 60¢ $853 $823 −$30 (-3%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies 79¢ 86¢ $705 $763 +$58 (+8%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 59¢ 80¢ $519 $710 +$191 (+37%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Kansas City Royals 43¢ 54¢ $527 $661 +$135 (+26%)
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Washington Nationals 51¢ 56¢ $552 $615 +$63 (+11%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 52¢ 46¢ $630 $567 −$63 (-10%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ 42¢ $574 $529 −$45 (-8%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Chicago Cubs 35¢ 30¢ $528 $463 −$64 (-12%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Colorado Rockies 39¢ 40¢ $454 $455 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $416 $420 +$4 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 48¢ $429 $408 −$21 (-5%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 42¢ $408 $398 −$10 (-3%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 48¢ 47¢ $361 $353 −$8 (-2%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ 60¢ $304 $334 +$30 (+10%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 58¢ $237 $278 +$41 (+17%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 75¢ 92¢ $195 $241 +$46 (+23%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds 39¢ 40¢ $198 $199 +$1 (+0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 50¢ $187 $194 +$7 (+4%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets New York Mets 25¢ 14¢ $329 $189 −$139 (-42%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 69¢ $184 $180 −$4 (-2%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Houston Astros 45¢ 20¢ $414 $180 −$234 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 419 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Jun 28 $34 −$91 -269%
Will Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? Jun 28 $16 −$23 -150%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-02-15? Jun 28 $432 −$432 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-01-10? Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 28 $349 −$349 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-24? Jun 28 $18 −$26 -142%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-01-03? Jun 28 $10 −$61 -614%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-02-07? Jun 28 $51 −$69 -134%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-23? Jun 28 $23 −$84 -371%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 28 $2,286 −$2,286 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? Jun 28 $186 −$186 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -109%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-21? Jun 28 $3 −$5 -196%
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-02-15? Jun 28 $350 −$350 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre vs. Paris FC end in a draw? Jun 28 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw? Jun 28 $25 −$30 -121%
Will Brentford FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jun 28 $50 −$105 -212%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-01-06? Jun 28 $4 −$6 -141%
Will Girona FC vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Jun 28 $45 −$52 -114%
Will Elche CF vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Jun 28 $17 −$36 -217%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 −$8 -159%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw? Jun 28 $7 −$13 -175%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-02-20? Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-02-18? Jun 28 $121 −$121 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 +$9 +44%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Jun 28 $119 −$119 -100%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-02-07? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-01-03? Jun 28 $8 −$26 -330%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Idaho Vandals Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-16? Jun 28 $618 −$618 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-01? Jun 28 $12 −$15 -130%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 28 $43 −$41 -97%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-16? Jun 28 $8 −$53 -659%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? Jun 28 $28 −$40 -140%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? Jun 28 $3 −$34 -1096%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC København win on 2026-01-20? Jun 28 $2 −$7 -283%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-20? Jun 28 $10 −$22 -216%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-21? Jun 28 $9 −$55 -620%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-01-10? Jun 28 $63 −$62 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) BUY Canada 98¢ $67 0m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $71 0m
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 35¢ $4 0m
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 34¢ $2 0m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $42 0m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 0m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 27¢ $11 0m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 27¢ $1 0m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 27¢ $0 0m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 27¢ $34 0m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 27¢ $5 0m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $0 0m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 80¢ $215 0m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 80¢ $352 0m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $18 0m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $6 0m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 0m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $4 0m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $4 0m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $11 0m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $13 0m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $67 0m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 0m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $142 0m
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 32¢ $5 0m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 27¢ $34 0m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 0m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $386 0m
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $29 0m
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 11¢ $1 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,075.60 · official $26,009.17 (match) · 3500 history records