Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:33:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9d5…3153 crypto 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$19 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate77%88W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day49.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$11
politics 1% +$7
sports 1% −$4
world 1% −$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 +2.1% -7.6% 77% 51% -10.2%
≤30d 114 +2.1% -7.6% 77% 51% -10.2%
≤90d 114 +2.1% -7.6% 77% 51% -10.2%
all 114 +2.1% -7.6% 77% 51% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 51% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 29% -18.8%
15% -24.5% 16% -26.6%
20% -31.9% 9% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses88 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)114 / 121
History coverage4d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day49.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 60¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? No 66¢ 66¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 63¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$8 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$9 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.43 · official $18.43 (match) · 283 history records