Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd9d5…df27 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate69%27W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$51
other 35% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +25.6% +13.6% 100% 83% +6.2%
≤30d 7 +7.7% -2.6% 86% 71% +5.1%
≤90d 15 -4.4% -13.5% 73% 67% +2.2%
all 39 +4.8% -5.2% 69% 64% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 64% -7.8%
10% -14.3% 54% -16.6%
15% -22.6% 38% -24.7%
20% -30.2% 23% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses27 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage174d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 69¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $140 +$10 +7%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) Jun 19 $5 +$2 +44%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $120 +$29 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half Jun 18 $24 +$6 +26%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$3 +14%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $4 −$4 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Frances Tiafoe May 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5 May 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi May 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff May 14 $3 +$2 +44%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 14 $7 +$3 +36%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Valencia CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 Jan 11 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-10? Jan 11 $5 +$5 +96%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5 Jan 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Jan 10 $3 +$3 +89%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $70 −$70 -100%
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 05 $2 +$1 +72%
Fulham FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 05 $5 +$4 +85%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 Jan 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $10 +$5 +52%
Everton FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 Jan 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-31? Dec 31 $70 +$16 +23%
Arsenal FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 30 $30 +$7 +25%
Chelsea FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 4.5 Dec 30 $20 +$6 +30%
Atalanta BC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score Dec 28 $10 −$9 -85%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5 Dec 28 $15 +$5 +35%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 28 $5 +$3 +64%
Sunderland AFC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 28 $1 +$2 +177%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-28? Dec 28 $2 $0 -3%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $10 +$7 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $150 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $140 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $2 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $2 3h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) BUY Shelton 69¢ $5 12h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $120 38h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 AND United States vs. Australia: Unit BUY 25¢ $10 38h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half BUY 79¢ $24 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $20 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 6d
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $4 26d
Hamburg European Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $7 33d
Hamburg European Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 73¢ $5 33d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 33d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Coco Gauff 59¢ $3 35d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi SELL Casper Ruud 85¢ $4 35d
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 66¢ $3 35d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi BUY Casper Ruud 73¢ $4 35d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina BUY Iga Swiatek 78¢ $5 36d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 69¢ $3 36d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 73¢ $7 36d
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3 159d
Valencia CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 160d
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-10? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 160d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-07? BUY Yes 75¢ $70 163d
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 163d
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 164d
Fulham FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 166d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-04? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 73 history records