trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$10 | +203% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $27 | −$16 | -59% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $11 | +$18 | +158% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $37 | +$15 | +41% |
| Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? | Jun 05 | $132 | −$66 | -50% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | Feb 17 | $198 | −$198 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | Jan 26 | $337 | −$313 | -93% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Dec 30 | $690 | −$500 | -72% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +40.6% | +27.2% | 60% | 60% | +11.2% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +25.5% | +13.5% | 50% | 50% | -30.2% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +25.5% | +13.5% | 50% | 50% | -30.2% |
| all | 9 | -13.3% | -21.5% | 33% | 33% | -72.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.5% | 33% | -72.8% |
| 10% | -29.1% | 33% | -75.4% |
| 15% | -35.9% | 33% | -77.8% |
| 20% | -42.2% | 22% | -80.0% |