Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D9 0xd9d0…a616 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$65 (+30%) realized +$68 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +170% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +134% what you keep after slip
Net edge+134%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$48
sports 17% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+143.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +169.6% +143.9% 83% 50% +17.3%
≤30d 6 +169.6% +143.9% 83% 50% +17.3%
≤90d 6 +169.6% +143.9% 83% 50% +17.3%
all 6 +169.6% +143.9% 83% 50% +17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +143.9% 50% +17.3%
10% +120.6% 50% +6.1%
15% +99.3% 50% -4.2%
20% +79.7% 50% -13.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +170% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$50 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$68
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$30 +365%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 +$60 +649%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 30h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.58 · official $8.58 (match) · 15 history records