Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd9cd…370d crypto 699 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,093 (+9%) realized +$5,093 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate95%663W / 36L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days+$70
14 days+$305
30 days+$670
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$3,895
world 1% +$958
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 252 +13.8% +2.9% 91% 16% -8.9%
≤30d 540 +8.6% -1.7% 95% 12% -7.2%
≤90d 699 +12.6% +1.9% 95% 17% -1.5%
all 699 +12.6% +1.9% 95% 17% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.9% 17% -1.5%
10% -7.9% 13% -11.0%
15% -16.8% 10% -19.6%
20% -24.9% 8% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$39 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.49 per $1 lost it wins $4.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,093
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses663 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)699 / 699
History coverage70d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 699 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $201 −$101 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$14 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $99 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$13 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $99 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $102 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $18 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $103 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $19 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $99 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $18 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1716 history records