Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:24:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9c9…6686 sports 174 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (356 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$120 (-7%) realized −$144 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day356.0pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$978now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$430
other 9% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (356 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-70.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -66.8% -70.0% 14% 14% -90.5%
≤30d 14 -66.8% -70.0% 14% 14% -90.5%
≤90d 14 -66.8% -70.0% 14% 14% -90.5%
all 14 -66.8% -70.0% 14% 14% -90.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover356.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -70.0% 14% -90.5%
10% ← realistic here -72.9% 14% -91.4%
15% -75.5% 0% -92.2%
20% -77.9% 0% -93.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -82% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$49 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$978
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions160
Markets (closed)14 / 174
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day356.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 160 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) Olivieri 38¢ 34¢ $202 $177 −$25 (-12%)
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsuda Misaki Matsuda 58¢ 98¢ $62 $105 +$43 (+69%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Kimberly Birrell 56¢ 56¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+1%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Nadja Mladenovic Petja Drame 63¢ 64¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Hyeon Chung 52¢ 51¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-2%)
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee Erika Sema 37¢ 54¢ $32 $47 +$15 (+46%)
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 52¢ 57¢ $42 $46 +$4 (+9%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Odeta Panasa vs Ana Giraldi Requena Odeta Panasa 55¢ 55¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton Yecong Mo 46¢ 52¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+12%)
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Yanki Erel 73¢ 73¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Taipei: Fang An Lin vs Mio Mushika Fang An Lin 52¢ 66¢ $22 $28 +$6 (+26%)
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai Shintaro Imai 61¢ 72¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+19%)
Chung vs. Imamura: Match O/U 23.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) Rehberg 28¢ 66¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+135%)
ITF Sapporo: Shihomi Li Xuan Leong vs Hee Rae Im Shihomi Li Xuan Leong 55¢ 74¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+34%)
Set Handicap: Goto (-1.5) vs Matsuda (+1.5) Matsuda 68¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair Colin Sinclair 80¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Max Hans Rehberg 46¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Ryo Tabata 25¢ 27¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Set Handicap: Birrell (-1.5) vs Li (+1.5) Birrell 33¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Set Handicap: Li (-1.5) vs Birrell (+1.5) Birrell 70¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 59¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Eva Marie Voracek 81¢ 85¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Set Handicap: Erel (-1.5) vs Tabata (+1.5) Erel 51¢ 54¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Popyrin (+1.5) Collignon 35¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $34 −$27 -80%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $4 −$2 -43%
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 16 $4 −$1 -14%
ITF Zhengzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 16 $55 −$50 -92%
ITF Taipei: Chia Yi Tsao vs Sakura Hosogi Jun 16 $65 −$62 -95%
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Ryota Tanuma Jun 16 $2 +$1 +27%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $127 −$84 -66%
Set Handicap: Zhu (-1.5) vs Chen (+1.5) Jun 16 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
ITF Tokyo: Yusuke Kusuhara vs Shu Matsuoka Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $125 −$124 -99%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $133 −$132 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lavinia Luciano vs. Alesia Breaz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 68¢ $1 0m
Stefania Bojica vs. Tea Kovacevic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 65¢ $1 0m
Lucie Urbanova vs. Anastasia Safta: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 68¢ $1 0m
Set Handicap: Bilozertsev (-1.5) vs Bernard (+1.5) BUY Bernard 49¢ $1 5m
Set Handicap: Bilozertsev (-1.5) vs Bernard (+1.5) BUY Bernard 49¢ $1 5m
ITF Klosters: Inaki Montes-De La Torre vs Dylan Dietrich BUY Dylan Dietrich 35¢ $1 6m
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton BUY Joshua Charlton 61¢ $1 6m
Shuai Zhang vs. Karolina Muchova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 67¢ $1 10m
Enrique Carrascosa Diaz vs. Michiel De Krom: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 70¢ $1 10m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mia Horvit vs Ena Ilic BUY Mia Horvit 79¢ $1 10m
Set Handicap: Giron (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) BUY Giron 44¢ $1 11m
Will Fortaleza EC vs. América FC end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $1 11m
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka BUY Taiyo Yamanaka 57¢ $1 12m
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka BUY Chase Ferguson 49¢ $1 13m
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka BUY Chase Ferguson 48¢ $1 14m
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5) BUY Team Refuser 60¢ $1 17m
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5) BUY Team Refuser 60¢ $1 17m
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai BUY Shintaro Imai 61¢ $20 20m
Shuai Zhang vs. Karolina Muchova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 67¢ $1 20m
Will Fortaleza EC vs. América FC end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $1 20m
Set Handicap: McNally (-1.5) vs Ruzic (+1.5) BUY Ruzic 56¢ $1 20m
Ignacio Buse vs. Marcos Giron: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 62¢ $1 20m
Set Handicap: Bojica (-1.5) vs Kovacevic (+1.5) BUY Kovacevic 66¢ $1 20m
Katarina Kuzmova vs. Viktoria Morvayova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 63¢ $1 21m
Set Handicap: Aubriot (-1.5) vs Yunis (+1.5) BUY Yunis 57¢ $1 23m
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) BUY Olivieri 37¢ $102 23m
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) BUY Olivieri 39¢ $102 23m
Set Handicap: Aubriot (-1.5) vs Yunis (+1.5) BUY Yunis 57¢ $1 23m
Set Handicap: Kokkinakis (-1.5) vs Kym (+1.5) BUY Kokkinakis 49¢ $1 24m
Set Handicap: Kokkinakis (-1.5) vs Kym (+1.5) BUY Kokkinakis 49¢ $1 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $978.49 · official $978.57 (match) · 364 history records