Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9c4…4e2f other 170 markets active 21h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-4%) realized −$10 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate9%16W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$6
politics 22% −$12
world 17% $0
finance 10% −$7
crypto 7% $0
weather 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 39 -3.1% -12.3% 0% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 115 -8.5% -17.2% 10% 0% -20.5%
all 169 -6.7% -15.5% 9% 1% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 1% -17.9%
10% -23.6% 0% -25.8%
15% -31.0% 0% -32.9%
20% -37.8% 0% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses16 / 153
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage165d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
QFEX FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 94¢ 57¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will Solana reach $100 June 8-14? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $1 $0 -4%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? Jun 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 06 $1 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2 Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market cl Jun 03 $1 $0 -11%
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 -1%
Will Seattle have between 0.5 and 1 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -0%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 30 $1 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $1 $0 -3%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 28 $4 $0 -1%
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by September 30? May 26 $1 $0 -7%
Will Semtech (SMTC) beat quarterly earnings? May 26 $1 $0 -6%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% May 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Enzo Maresca be the next manager of Manchester City FC? May 23 $2 $0 -1%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12B by June 30? May 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump or Melania say "Movie Star" during the Congressional Picnic May 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Super Bowl" this week? May 19 $1 $0 -12%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 18 $1 $0 -3%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 18 $1 $0 -0%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by 20-25%? May 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "Friendship" during Chinese State Banquet? May 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw May 14 $1 $0 -2%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? May 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 18 be betwe May 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 20? May 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 11, 2026? May 11 $19 −$1 -5%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 21? May 11 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 SELL No 99¢ $1 20h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? SELL No 95¢ $1 20h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $1 20h
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $1 20h
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 44h
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 44h
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 SELL No 98¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 3d
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $1 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on SELL No 97¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Solana reach $100 June 8-14? SELL No 96¢ $1 6d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? SELL No 96¢ $1 6d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 96¢ $1 6d
Will Solana reach $100 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 96¢ $1 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 7d
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 8d
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.21 · official $1.26 (match) · 473 history records