Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D9
0xd9be…06f0
sports · 86 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
−$114 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$120 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$96
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses24 / 60
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage208d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 2 History 84 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$38
14 days+$39
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 76¢ $63 $67 +$4 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 41¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+11%)
Knicks vs. Hornets Knicks 49¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07? No 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Loyola Maryland Greyhounds vs. Holy Cross Crusaders Holy Cross Crusaders 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Washington Huskies vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Rutgers Scarlet Knights 35¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spread: Western Carolina Catamounts (-7.5) The Citadel Bulldogs 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5) Wizards 50¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Miami vs. Ole Miss Ole Miss 40¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 4? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO3) Xtreme Gaming 60¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Heat Heat 63¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-29? No 49¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Colts vs. Chiefs Colts 36¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 67¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Dayton Flyers vs. Saint Louis Billikens Saint Louis Billikens 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Houston Cougars 59¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18? No 60¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 28? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bengals vs. Dolphins Dolphins 35¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Fulham FC 53¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-25? No 57¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Canucks vs. Blackhawks Blackhawks 59¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 8? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $35 +$38 +110%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Jun 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $671 −$3 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $65 −$2 -3%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $57 −$3 -6%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $64 −$25 -38%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $60 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $200 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $260 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $170 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $310 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $180 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $150 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $370 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $200 −$2 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $100 −$1 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 17 $130 $0 +0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $260 −$1 -0%
Jets vs. Utah Apr 16 $14 +$9 +61%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $15 +$7 +46%
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 15 $8 +$7 +86%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 14 $10 +$5 +48%
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 14 $9 +$6 +67%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $17 −$17 -98%
Wild vs. Panthers Apr 07 $8 +$6 +75%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Knicks vs. Hornets Mar 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pacers Mar 26 $17 +$3 +20%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-03-18? Mar 26 $13 +$7 +49%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 69% −$42
other 17% −$20
sports 9% −$69
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
world 1% +$45
culture 1% −$1
crypto 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $26 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $73 1h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $26 2h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $26 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $35 4d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $59 11d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 12d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $54 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +54.7% +40.0% 50% 50% +47.3%
≤30d 11 +5.3% -4.7% 18% 9% -9.2%
≤90d 52 +5.0% -5.0% 29% 21% -9.6%
all 84 -9.6% -18.3% 29% 24% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 24% -10.4%
10% -26.1% 23% -19.0%
15% -33.2% 23% -26.8%
20% -39.8% 19% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.64 · official $95.64 (match) · 338 history records