Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D9 0xd9bc…377e sports 882 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,761 (-12%) realized −$2,737 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%319W / 562L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$498est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$214
7 days−$357
14 days−$352
30 days−$715
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$3,172
other 10% +$175
crypto 8% −$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -71.2% -73.9% 14% 14% -50.7%
≤30d 245 -23.6% -30.8% 29% 25% -24.8%
≤90d 667 -24.2% -31.4% 32% 28% -24.0%
all 881 -16.8% -24.7% 36% 30% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 30% -22.6%
10% -31.9% 25% -30.0%
15% -38.5% 20% -36.8%
20% -44.5% 16% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$16 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2,737
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses319 / 562
Est. fees paid−$498
Open positions1
Markets (closed)881 / 882
History coverage111d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 881 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Max Hans Rehberg Dylan Dietrich 27¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $115 +$74 +65%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh Jun 28 $13 −$12 -88%
ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra Jun 28 $51 −$49 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich Jun 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $57 −$36 -64%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $129 −$86 -67%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $91 +$64 +70%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? Jun 26 $24 −$24 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Ying Zhang Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 26 $10 +$8 +81%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -92%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 24 $13 −$13 -97%
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Xiran Lan Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $34 −$34 -98%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Ryan Nijboer Jun 17 $5 −$2 -41%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
ITF Bolszewo: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Barbora Michalkova Jun 16 $5 −$4 -82%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $22 +$75 +347%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $15 +$15 +102%
ITF Merzig: Tamila Gadamauri vs Valentina Steiner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman Jun 14 $1 $0 -37%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Nikita Mashtakov Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 12 $11 −$8 -69%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese Jun 12 $14 −$2 -13%
ITF Cuiaba: Giovana Schincariol Delatorre Barbosa vs Carolina Alves Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Clement Tabur Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Carolina Gomez Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Nice: Emira Diabate vs Jenny Lim Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $25 +$33 +134%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $21 +$1 +5%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 11 $26 −$2 -6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $33 −$3 -8%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $12 +$19 +151%
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Lisa Peer Jun 11 $10 −$9 -86%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Aliesia Reva Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $48 +$33 +69%
ITF Zagreb: Lucija Ciric Bagaric vs Laura Mair Jun 11 $30 +$21 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Dylan Dietrich 27¢ $26 46m
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 92¢ $189 1h
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 55¢ $115 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh $2 2h
ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra BUY Mathys Picard 26¢ $30 6h
ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Roger Pascual Ferra BUY Mathys Picard 26¢ $20 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh $13 6h
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich BUY Meiqi Guo 14¢ $15 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $52 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $15 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 14h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 17¢ $21 14h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $57 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 27¢ $43 15h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 17¢ $43 15h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $129 27h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 19¢ $26 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $91 37h
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 2d
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 2d
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $24 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka BUY Xinyu Wang 24¢ $26 2d
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Ying Zhang BUY Ying Zhang 39¢ $20 2d
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Bruno Fernandez SELL Bruno Fernandez $2 2d
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Bruno Fernandez SELL Bruno Fernandez 38¢ $16 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Bruno Fernandez BUY Bruno Fernandez 12¢ $10 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 11¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $1.01 (match) · 2365 history records