Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:54:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9bb…0eaa sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (165 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$38 (+5%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day165.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$36
sports 26% −$130
world 18% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (165 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -27.9% -34.8% 38% 26% -15.7%
≤30d 53 -27.9% -34.8% 38% 26% -15.7%
≤90d 53 -27.9% -34.8% 38% 26% -15.7%
all 53 -27.9% -34.8% 38% 26% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover165.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.8% 26% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -41.0% 17% -23.7%
15% -46.7% 13% -31.1%
20% -52.0% 9% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 33
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day165.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 87¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $129 +$16 +12%
Exact Score: Qingdao Xihaian FC 1 - 3 Zhejiang Zhiye FC? Jun 28 $129 +$8 +6%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 28 $139 −$4 -3%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 28 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 $0 +23%
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 28 $1 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $3 +$3 +90%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $1 +$4 +325%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $1 $0 +42%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 28 $4 +$1 +14%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $2 +$3 +124%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 28 $2 −$1 -45%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $3 −$2 -52%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $1 $0 +17%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 28 $18 −$7 -37%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $6 −$1 -26%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $3 −$4 -132%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$18 +90%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $4 −$2 -50%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $29 −$48 -166%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $18 −$2 -12%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $2 −$1 -39%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $3 +$2 +48%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $1 $0 +7%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $1 +$2 +158%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $7 −$5 -70%
Panama vs. England: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $13 −$8 -62%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 27 $7 −$2 -35%
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $11 −$2 -20%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $4 −$7 -148%
Spread: England (-4.5) Jun 27 $1 $0 +13%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 27 $9 −$9 -99%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$4 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $1 $0 +6%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 $0 -9%
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? Jun 27 $1 $0 -7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $2 $0 +3%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $11 −$18 -159%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $11 −$2 -20%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $11 +$2 +16%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $9 −$4 -49%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 89¢ $129 1h
Exact Score: Qingdao Xihaian FC 1 - 3 Zhejiang Zhiye FC? SELL No 100¢ $137 1h
Exact Score: Qingdao Xihaian FC 1 - 3 Zhejiang Zhiye FC? BUY No 94¢ $129 3h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL Yes 56¢ $134 3h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $1 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $1 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $1 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 9h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 94¢ $1 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 94¢ $1 10h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL No 69¢ $1 10h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) SELL Jordan 82¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 10h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $1 13h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.95 · official $150.95 (match) · 319 history records