Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9ba…ce43 sports 179 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$289 (-8%) realized −$287 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%74W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$71
14 days−$71
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$72
crypto 33% −$170
other 15% −$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -18.9% -26.6% 33% 29% -23.3%
≤30d 21 -18.9% -26.6% 33% 29% -23.3%
≤90d 177 -9.5% -18.1% 42% 38% -18.3%
all 177 -9.5% -18.1% 42% 38% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 38% -18.3%
10% -26.0% 33% -26.1%
15% -33.1% 25% -33.2%
20% -39.7% 16% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$287
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses74 / 103
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)177 / 179
History coverage70d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $54 +$18 +34%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $18 −$10 -55%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $8 +$9 +118%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 −$3 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$10 +32%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 +$9 +97%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $66 −$6 -9%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 $0 -1%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $48 −$1 -2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $13 +$20 +152%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -7%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 16 $5 +$11 +214%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 +$2 +45%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group St May 16 $14 −$10 -72%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo May 16 $20 −$19 -98%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 1 Winner May 16 $1 $0 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $27 −$1 -4%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $26 −$4 -15%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 15 $23 −$10 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 15 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 15 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 15 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 15 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 15 $7 +$8 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 15 $6 +$5 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 15 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 15 $56 −$36 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 15 $37 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 15 $60 −$29 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 15 $31 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 15 $54 +$22 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 14 $105 +$62 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 14 $22 −$21 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 14 $58 +$5 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $56 1m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 80¢ $25 43m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 18¢ $8 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 50¢ $47 55m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $54 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 96¢ $17 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 52¢ $38 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 54¢ $40 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $40 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 39¢ $18 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $18 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $9 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $8 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $32 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $10 18h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 18h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $6 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $32 38h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 38h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 38h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 39h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 39h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $13 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.82 · official $61.82 (match) · 625 history records