Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:01:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9b9…04f6 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$30 (+2%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate81%17W / 4L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$46
other 12% −$12
world 5% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -2.0% -11.3% 81% 19% -5.5%
≤30d 21 -2.0% -11.3% 81% 19% -5.5%
≤90d 21 -2.0% -11.3% 81% 19% -5.5%
all 21 -2.0% -11.3% 81% 19% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 19% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 10% -14.5%
15% -27.5% 5% -22.8%
20% -34.6% 0% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses17 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $78 +$4 +6%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 +$4 +16%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $89 +$5 +5%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $95 +$11 +12%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $48 +$2 +5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $48 +$2 +5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $66 +$15 +23%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $45 −$44 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $72 +$7 +9%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $155 −$12 -7%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $106 +$40 +38%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $48 +$3 +6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $44 +$4 +8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $48 +$2 +5%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $48 +$4 +8%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $19 +$2 +8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $67 +$7 +10%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $94 −$8 -8%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 95¢ $26 59m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 95¢ $26 59m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 94¢ $26 59m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 98¢ $34 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $24 2h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 96¢ $30 3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 95¢ $30 3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 94¢ $29 3h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $24 5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $24 5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $24 5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $24 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 96¢ $24 24h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 95¢ $24 24h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 95¢ $24 25h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 95¢ $24 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 67¢ $19 26h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 80¢ $22 26h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 80¢ $23 26h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 100¢ $79 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $24 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $24 26h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 97¢ $25 26h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 93¢ $24 26h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 84¢ $24 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $76 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $24 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 95¢ $24 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 95¢ $24 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 58¢ $47 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records