Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

D9 0xd9b6…7efc sports 24 markets active 3h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR37%break-even

Win rate37%7W / 12L

Drawdown51%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$19est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +37%

net ROI/market (all)+5.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+16.7%	+5.6%	37%	37%	+19.6%
≤30d	19	+16.7%	+5.6%	37%	37%	+19.6%
≤90d	19	+16.7%	+5.6%	37%	37%	+19.6%
all	19	+16.7%	+5.6%	37%	37%	+19.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.6%	37%	+19.6%
10%	-4.5%	32%	+8.1%
15%	-13.7%	32%	-2.3%
20%	-22.2%	26%	-11.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 68% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +76% → late -37% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$69 vs −$20 · ×3.54 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$16

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)37%

Wins / losses7 / 12

Est. fees paid−$19

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 24

History coverage6d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown51%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to	Jun 17	$81	+$240	+297%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$8	−$8	-100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$1	-2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND	Jun 15	$51	−$43	-85%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$15	−$15	-100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$36	−$36	-100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5	Jun 15	$10	−$7	-71%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$3	-7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$3	-6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$51	−$2	-5%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$36	+$41	+114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5	Jun 14	$20	+$4	+18%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2	Jun 13	$10	+$44	+425%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$45	+$22	+49%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 12	$100	+$89	+89%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$45	+$45	+101%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 11	$99	−$99	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	BUY Croatia	3¢	$5	3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to	BUY	25¢	$81	24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	20¢	$1	28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	19¢	$8	28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	14¢	$2	29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY	10¢	$10	29h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	23¢	$50	2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL	27¢	$50	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	35¢	$8	2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND	SELL	5¢	$8	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AN	BUY	5¢	$111	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AN	BUY	6¢	$223	2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	26¢	$51	2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL	41¢	$47	2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND	BUY	31¢	$51	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL	44¢	$48	2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	43¢	$51	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	45¢	$51	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	53¢	$49	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	54¢	$51	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5	SELL Over	10¢	$3	3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5	BUY Over	11¢	$10	3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5	SELL Over	45¢	$7	3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5	BUY Over	61¢	$20	3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	42¢	$36	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$15	3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY	17¢	$15	3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5	BUY	41¢	$36	4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY	46¢	$36	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	84¢	$24	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $324.64 · 53 history records