Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:21:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D9 0xd9b6…1a51 crypto 205 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%120W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$14
sports 1% −$2
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +4.9% -5.1% 69% 62% -13.1%
≤30d 204 -2.7% -12.0% 59% 53% -12.4%
≤90d 204 -2.7% -12.0% 59% 53% -12.4%
all 204 -2.7% -12.0% 59% 53% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 53% -12.4%
10% -20.4% 46% -20.8%
15% -28.1% 35% -28.4%
20% -35.1% 27% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses120 / 84
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)204 / 205
History coverage24d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.02 · official $0.98 (match) · 410 history records