Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:33:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D9
0xd9b5…9db1
weather · 747 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
+$1,334 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,327 · open −$30,538
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$707
Realized−$7,327
Unrealized−$30,538
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses113 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions426
Markets (closed)224 / 747
Avg bet$64
Trades / day750.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 426 History 224 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,605
7 days−$7,327
14 days−$7,327
30 days−$7,327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $970 $24 −$946 (-98%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $927 $23 −$904 (-98%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $924 $23 −$901 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $924 $23 −$901 (-98%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $924 $23 −$901 (-98%)
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $666 $9 −$657 (-99%)
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $666 $9 −$657 (-99%)
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $666 $9 −$657 (-99%)
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $666 $9 −$657 (-99%)
Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $666 $9 −$657 (-99%)
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $666 $9 −$657 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -425%
Will Enzo Maresca be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Julian Nagelsmann be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C or below on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Thomas Tuchel be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Robert De Zerbi be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 11°C or below on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OG Anunoby lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 12 $159 +$1 +1%
Will Z.ai have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 83°F or below on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? Jun 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Jun 11 $78 −$78 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2 Jun 11 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 11 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $548 −$548 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 10 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Rick Shepherd be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 10? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bill Conrad be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on June 10? Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $169 −$119 -70%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $116 +$1 +1%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $262 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 61% −$33,615
politics 14% −$33
sports 11% −$1,391
weather 7% −$1,680
tech 4% −$1,199
economics 1% $0
world 0% +$62
crypto 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OG Anunoby lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Alibaba have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Contr SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will "Make Them Cry - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this we SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Z.ai have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Wipr 2 be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Nic Dowd score the most goals in a single game during the 2026 NH SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Rasmus Andersson score the most goals in a single game during the SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Noah Hanifin score the most goals in a single game during the 202 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Colton Sissons score the most goals in a single game during the 2 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Brayden McNabb score the most goals in a single game during the 2 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Will gemini-3.5-flash be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will gemini-3.5-flash be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will gemini-3.5-flash be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will gemini-3.5-flash be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will gemini-3.5-flash be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will gemini-3.1-pro-preview be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will gemini-3.5-flash be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will gemini-3.1-pro-preview be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will gemini-3.5-flash be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will gemini-3.1-pro-preview be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will gemini-3.5-flash be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will gemini-3.1-pro-preview be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will gemini-3.1-pro-preview be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will gemini-3.5-flash be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will gemini-3.5-flash be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will gemini-3.1-pro-preview be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 224 -28.4% -35.2% 50% 8% -34.4%
≤30d 224 -28.4% -35.2% 50% 8% -34.4%
≤90d 224 -28.4% -35.2% 50% 8% -34.4%
all 224 -28.4% -35.2% 50% 8% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover750.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.2% 8% -34.4%
10% ← realistic here -41.4% 5% -40.7%
15% -47.1% 5% -46.4%
20% -52.2% 4% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $707.21 · official $707.22 (match) · 3500 history records