Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9b4…9035 crypto 1860 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+1%) realized +$52 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate71%1301W / 530L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day127.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$80
14 days+$109
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 560 +2.4% -7.3% 63% 51% -9.3%
≤30d 1831 +0.6% -9.0% 71% 67% -8.5%
≤90d 1831 +0.6% -9.0% 71% 67% -8.5%
all 1831 +0.6% -9.0% 71% 67% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 67% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 48% -17.3%
15% -25.7% 31% -25.3%
20% -33.0% 14% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1301 / 530
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1831 / 1860
History coverage16d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day127.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1831 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$99 +9252%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -33%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +398%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +129%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +114%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 7m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 29m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 50m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 50m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 59m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.08 · official $1.19 (match) · 3364 history records