Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:30:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D9 0xd9a6…39fd other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,214 (+85%) realized +$2,210 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$102
14 days+$102
30 days+$2,181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 36% +$62
politics 34% +$2,189
world 18% +$102
sports 10% −$152
other 3% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +37.8% +24.7% 100% 100% +10.0%
≤30d 7 +19.3% +7.9% 71% 43% +67.5%
≤90d 7 +19.3% +7.9% 71% 43% +67.5%
all 7 +19.3% +7.9% 71% 43% +67.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.9% 43% +67.5%
10% -2.4% 29% +51.5%
15% -11.8% 29% +36.9%
20% -20.5% 29% +23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$471 vs −$87 · ×5.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.49 per $1 lost it wins $13.49
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$2,210
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage29d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 42¢ 46¢ $49 $53 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 27 $70 +$43 +61%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $400 +$59 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $939 +$62 +7%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $101 +$3 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $876 +$2,189 +250%
UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion May 31 $155 −$155 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.16 · official $51.71 · 16 history records