Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:35:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd9a4…dbad other 35 markets active 2d ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$276 (-33%) realized −$276 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$44
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$214
crypto 32% +$3
sports 8% −$33
world 5% −$26
politics 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-47.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -57.1% -61.2% 14% 14% -75.8%
≤30d 10 -44.8% -50.0% 20% 20% -67.1%
≤90d 29 -44.6% -49.9% 24% 21% -47.0%
all 32 -41.4% -47.0% 25% 22% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.0% 22% -41.8%
10% -52.1% 22% -47.4%
15% -56.7% 19% -52.4%
20% -61.0% 16% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$17 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$276
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage105d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +104%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$3 -11%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $7 −$6 -86%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -82%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $5 +$7 +152%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? May 07 $10 −$8 -82%
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 07 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $16 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? Apr 21 $220 −$164 -74%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Apr 21 $76 −$76 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 21 $40 −$22 -54%
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" or "Cheater" during Apr 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 21 $5 +$6 +121%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $60 +$52 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 30 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during Ohio visit? Mar 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 30 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 30 $60 +$26 +43%
Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times during Ohio visit? Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 05 $30 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 05 $35 +$28 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $16 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 AND Eng BUY 6¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 2¢ $1 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2 BUY 10¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 13¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $7 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 8d
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 8d
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 8d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 41d
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 41d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 41d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 50d
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 50d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 57d
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" or "Cheater" during SELL Yes 0¢ $0 57d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 57d
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" or "Cheater" during BUY Yes 2¢ $1 57d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? BUY No 3¢ $3 57d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $5 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records