Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd9a1…e0dc crypto 215 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$41 (+5%) realized +$39 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate79%169W / 45L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$31
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$30
other 5% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 +3.3% -6.5% 81% 52% -5.1%
≤30d 214 +3.3% -6.6% 79% 54% -5.4%
≤90d 214 +3.3% -6.6% 79% 54% -5.4%
all 214 +3.3% -6.6% 79% 54% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 54% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 34% -14.5%
15% -23.7% 20% -22.7%
20% -31.2% 12% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses169 / 45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)214 / 215
History coverage9d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Up 72¢ 80¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $32 +$9 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $23 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$6 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $28 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$22 +681%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $18 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $17 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $16 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $18 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $23 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.60 · official $22.34 · 433 history records