Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:10:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D9 0xd9a0…7f9f other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$897 (+42%) realized +$978 · open −$81
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$542now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,141
7 days+$1,309
14 days+$1,309
30 days+$1,534
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$609
other 46% +$848
crypto 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+49.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +95.1% +76.5% 71% 71% +88.0%
≤30d 12 +65.3% +49.6% 75% 58% +81.6%
≤90d 12 +65.3% +49.6% 75% 58% +81.6%
all 12 +65.3% +49.6% 75% 58% +81.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.6% 58% +81.6%
10% +35.2% 58% +64.2%
15% +22.2% 50% +48.4%
20% +10.2% 50% +33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +101% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +101% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +128% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$91 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.65 per $1 lost it wins $6.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$542
Realized+$978
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage17d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 59¢ 56¢ $501 $480 −$21 (-4%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 16¢ $98 $37 −$61 (-62%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 27¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $209 +$863 +413%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $103 +$205 +200%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $284 +$244 +86%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $225 −$220 -98%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 +$49 +97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $304 +$213 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $45 −$45 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $37 +$12 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $199 +$217 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $506 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,071 3h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $48 4h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 4h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 4h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 6h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $54 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $528 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $284 31h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 31h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 31h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 32h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 46h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 47h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $517 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $45 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down $15 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down $21 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 14d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 14d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $37 14d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $416 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $542.01 · official $542.09 (match) · 35 history records