Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd99f…41c8 world 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate28%19W / 48L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$8
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$12
other 28% +$2
politics 17% +$5
sports 12% −$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.5% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 28 -1.3% -10.7% 21% 7% -10.6%
≤90d 43 -0.5% -10.0% 26% 7% -9.6%
all 67 -0.3% -9.8% 28% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses19 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage334d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $180 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $114 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $82 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $86 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $42 +$7 +17%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $82 +$2 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $178 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $78 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $78 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $7 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $85 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $78 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $77 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $78 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $37 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $38 −$18 -47%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $21 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $183 −$6 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $81 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $97 −$6 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $9 $0 -4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $98 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $68 +$8 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $65 +$2 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $88 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $1 $0 -6%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $566 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 27 $144 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $35 +$4 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 22 $97 +$7 +7%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $541 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $597 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $78 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 28 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $72 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $78 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $94 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $94 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $14 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $42 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $28 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $17 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $56 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $13 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $86 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $86 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $28 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $43 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $15 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $41 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $41 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $82 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $86 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $50 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 238 history records