Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:10:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd99e…2422 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$593 (-67%) realized −$392 · open −$201
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$408
other 49% −$353
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 7 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$80 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$392
Unrealized−$201
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 7
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage6d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Yes 30¢ 19¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-37%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $102 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $102 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 24h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 25¢ $51 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.90 · official $98.90 (match) · 16 history records