Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd99e…67e3 other 721 markets active 1h ago coverage 694d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$321 (-0%) realized −$319 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate80%577W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$175
14 days+$274
30 days+$499
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$196
sports 22% −$47
crypto 2% −$527
world 1% +$81
economics 0% +$3
politics 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.6% -10.0% 75% 75% +0.5%
≤30d 46 +5.4% -4.7% 78% 74% -3.3%
≤90d 173 -1.4% -10.8% 81% 60% -9.7%
all 717 -2.8% -12.1% 80% 52% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 52% -9.8%
10% -20.5% 19% -18.4%
15% -28.2% 7% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$82 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

694d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized−$319
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses577 / 140
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions2
Markets (closed)717 / 721
History coverage694d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 717 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 82¢ 81¢ $354 $352 −$2 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $401 +$53 +13%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $53 −$53 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $301 +$51 +17%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $71 +$30 +42%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $302 +$36 +12%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 22 $51 −$16 -32%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $308 +$45 +14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $147 +$32 +22%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $103 +$27 +27%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $100 +$21 +21%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $145 +$55 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? A Jun 14 $91 +$54 +59%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 12 $15 +$12 +81%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? A Jun 12 $19 −$9 -46%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $138 −$137 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $400 +$43 +11%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $105 +$40 +38%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $164 +$46 +28%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $312 +$53 +17%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 09 $310 +$98 +32%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $149 +$11 +7%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 08 $126 +$27 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $216 +$59 +27%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $170 +$46 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $85 −$26 -30%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $86 +$25 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $76 +$94 +124%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $73 −$72 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $301 −$300 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $26 +$14 +55%
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $350 +$22 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $91 +$12 +14%
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $300 +$37 +12%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $76 +$17 +23%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $70 +$18 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $250 +$50 +20%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $49 +$21 +42%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $138 −$137 -100%
Will Gambia win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $200 +$38 +19%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $92 −$91 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $252 +$38 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $122 +$32 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti May 27 $175 +$48 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado May 26 $129 +$45 +35%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $299 +$30 +10%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $231 −$231 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $233 +$28 +12%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $206 +$34 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $98 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $356 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Iga Swiatek 75¢ $53 32h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $15 32h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $16 32h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $73 32h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 88¢ $296 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $301 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 70¢ $71 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Iva Jovic 73¢ $51 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $302 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $308 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 7d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 82¢ $147 8d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 79¢ $103 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY 79¢ $201 10d
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 82¢ $100 10d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 72¢ $145 11d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY 71¢ $127 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? A BUY 62¢ $91 12d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? A SELL 11¢ $11 12d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? A BUY 19¢ $19 13d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 73¢ $138 13d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 55¢ $15 13d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $400 14d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ $105 14d
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 78¢ $82 15d
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 78¢ $82 15d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 85¢ $312 15d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Iva Jovic 76¢ $310 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.07 · official $449.07 (match) · 1944 history records