Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd99c…2efd other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$796 (-22%) realized −$740 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day47.4pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$1,304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$850
sports 41% +$174
crypto 6% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -14.6% -22.7% 14% 14% -43.1%
≤30d 21 -14.6% -22.7% 14% 14% -43.1%
≤90d 21 -14.6% -22.7% 14% 14% -43.1%
all 21 -14.6% -22.7% 14% 14% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.7% 14% -43.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.1% 14% -48.5%
15% -36.9% 14% -53.5%
20% -43.1% 14% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$344 vs −$103 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,304
Realized−$740
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 18
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions8
Markets (closed)21 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day47.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $400 $373 −$27 (-7%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+8%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-3%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $32 +$213 +671%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $106 −$104 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $430 −$420 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $304 −$297 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $307 +$696 +227%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $21 +$122 +596%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $226 −$220 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 3 Australia? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $205 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $245 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $11 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $10 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $10 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 5h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 6h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 13h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 13h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $204 13h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,303.78 · official $1,304.18 (match) · 64 history records