Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:12:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd99c…2efd other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$309 (-9%) realized −$217 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$1,778now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$469
sports 43% +$268
crypto 6% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -39.9% -45.6% 12% 12% -28.7%
≤30d 17 -39.9% -45.6% 12% 12% -28.7%
≤90d 17 -39.9% -45.6% 12% 12% -28.7%
all 17 -39.9% -45.6% 12% 12% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.6% 12% -28.7%
10% ← realistic here -50.8% 12% -35.6%
15% -55.5% 12% -41.8%
20% -59.9% 12% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$409 vs −$75 · ×5.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,778
Realized−$217
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions11
Markets (closed)17 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $410 $325 −$85 (-21%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+8%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+3%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-4%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $304 −$297 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $307 +$696 +227%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $21 +$122 +596%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $226 −$220 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 3 Australia? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $205 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 9h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $204 9h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 9h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 9h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 9h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 14h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $1,003 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 14h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 17h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 21h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 21h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 27h
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,778.21 · official $1,778.21 (match) · 47 history records