Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D9 0xd995…e6e1 crypto 531 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate36%183W / 332L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day50.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$25
weather 26% −$104
other 5% −$5
sports 1% −$13
world 1% $0
politics 1% +$9
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +4.2% -5.7% 91% 26% -8.5%
≤30d 335 -18.8% -26.5% 41% 33% -10.8%
≤90d 515 -24.0% -31.3% 36% 28% -13.7%
all 515 -24.0% -31.3% 36% 28% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.3% 28% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -37.8% 24% -22.0%
15% -43.8% 20% -29.5%
20% -49.4% 15% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses183 / 332
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)515 / 531
History coverage35d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day50.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 515 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 20? No 73¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 20? No 67¢ 64¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? No 64¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 20? No 66¢ 61¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 21? No 75¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 19? No 73¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 21? No 67¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? No 69¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 18? No 62¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 17? No 60¢ 95¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 18? No 68¢ 93¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+37%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 17? No 73¢ 80¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? No 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 21? No 68¢ 65¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 17? No 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 20? No 71¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 18? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 19? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 18? Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 17? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19? Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 16? Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 15? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 16? Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 15? Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 14? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 14? Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 14? Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 -4%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$4 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 10? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on June 6? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $2 $0 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $2 $0 +25%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on June 7? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -55%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -65%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 73¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 69¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 62¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 20? BUY No 64¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 18? SELL No 66¢ $1 6h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 20? BUY No 71¢ $1 12h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $1 12h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 21? BUY No 67¢ $1 13h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 19? SELL No 73¢ $1 13h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 21? BUY No 67¢ $1 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 18? SELL No 68¢ $1 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 58¢ $1 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 17? SELL No 63¢ $1 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 54¢ $1 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 20? BUY No 67¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 63¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 57¢ $1 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? SELL No 80¢ $3 26h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 18? BUY No 59¢ $1 26h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? SELL No 71¢ $3 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 21? BUY No 75¢ $2 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19? SELL No 79¢ $3 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 79¢ $2 27h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 20? BUY No 66¢ $1 27h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 21? BUY No 68¢ $1 27h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 18? SELL No 68¢ $4 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $1 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.56 · official $37.56 (match) · 1848 history records