Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:20:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D9 0xd991…c161 sports 435 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,440 (-3%) realized −$5,653 · open +$213
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate61%265W / 169L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$405per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$439est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5,213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3,410
14 days−$2,782
30 days−$1,970
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$2,232
crypto 20% −$748
other 11% −$3,310
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.7% -8.0% 83% 50% -37.0%
≤30d 32 +18.8% +7.5% 88% 78% -19.2%
≤90d 201 -4.9% -14.0% 66% 59% -15.7%
all 434 +3.7% -6.1% 61% 53% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 53% -12.9%
10% -15.1% 37% -21.3%
15% -23.3% 27% -28.9%
20% -30.8% 20% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$273 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$5,213
Realized−$5,653
Unrealized+$213
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses265 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$439
Open positions1
Markets (closed)434 / 435
History coverage186d
Avg bet$405
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 434 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $5,000 $5,213 +$213 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 157 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,008 −$4,000 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,002 +$59 +2%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $502 +$96 +19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,005 +$165 +6%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $402 +$63 +16%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $304 +$207 +68%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs paiN Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $52 +$38 +73%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 10 $203 +$173 +85%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $303 +$138 +46%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 10 $401 +$53 +13%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 10 $303 +$158 +52%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $402 +$63 +16%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 10 $403 +$104 +26%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $100 +$11 +11%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 04 $401 +$47 +12%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $401 +$48 +12%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $401 +$54 +13%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 04 $303 +$173 +57%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $402 +$76 +19%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Team Weibo (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act May 30 $77 +$12 +16%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 30 $402 +$58 +14%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $402 +$63 +16%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 30 $304 +$198 +65%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 4 Winner May 23 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 22 $1 $0 +2%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 22 $19 +$51 +262%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $401 +$46 +12%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 22 $401 +$53 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 22 $402 +$92 +23%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 22 $403 +$130 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne May 19 $304 −$300 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 19 $303 −$300 -99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $402 −$400 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 17 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 17 $403 +$137 +34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $303 −$300 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $401 +$34 +8%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 17 $304 +$227 +75%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 17 $403 +$160 +40%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 16 $326 +$27 +8%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner May 16 $401 −$400 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 16 $403 −$400 -99%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif May 16 $302 +$86 +29%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 16 $303 +$137 +45%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 16 $401 +$49 +12%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 16 $403 +$104 +26%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 16 $402 −$400 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $4,506 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $501 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $4,008 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $3,002 4d
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $3,005 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 59¢ $304 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 19¢ $102 7d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Global Esports 86¢ $402 9d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $403 13d
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner BUY GAM Esports 53¢ $203 13d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $303 13d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 86¢ $402 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 88¢ $401 14d
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs paiN Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY RED Canids Academy 57¢ $52 14d
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen BUY CCG Esports 65¢ $303 15d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BIG 63¢ $303 16d
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 90¢ $100 17d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western BUY Natus Vincere 28¢ $102 17d
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta BUY NRG 89¢ $401 18d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 84¢ $402 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 89¢ $401 19d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 88¢ $401 20d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 86¢ $402 23d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 4 Winner BUY LNG Esports 44¢ $203 27d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 87¢ $402 27d
Valorant: TEC Esports vs Team Weibo (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act BUY TEC Esports 86¢ $77 28d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Weibo Gaming 60¢ $304 28d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 52¢ $304 31d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 67¢ $303 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,212.90 · official $5,212.90 (match) · 793 history records