Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:34:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd991…86e4 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$863 (+12%) realized +$863 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$598
7 days+$787
14 days+$807
30 days+$807
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$790
sports 10% −$51
crypto 1% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +0.4% -9.2% 57% 57% +0.5%
≤30d 23 -1.6% -11.0% 57% 57% +0.5%
≤90d 23 -1.6% -11.0% 57% 57% +0.5%
all 23 -1.6% -11.0% 57% 57% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 57% +0.5%
10% -19.5% 52% -9.1%
15% -27.3% 35% -17.9%
20% -34.4% 17% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$580) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$149 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$863
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage11d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $302 +$73 +24%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $504 +$140 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $907 +$293 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $911 −$19 -2%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $776 +$251 +32%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $194 −$190 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $631 +$316 +50%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $28 +$4 +13%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $174 −$170 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $580 +$253 +44%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $91 −$89 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $143 +$523 +365%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $868 −$860 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $564 +$205 +36%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $46 +$35 +76%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 93¢ $644 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $504 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $302 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 17h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $907 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 82¢ $884 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $905 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $71 26h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $194 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $705 26h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $28 37h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $174 38h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $631 38h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $91 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $580 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $143 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $868 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $137 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $79 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $81 4d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $46 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $35 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records