Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:35:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D9
0xd990…749e
other · 212 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$68 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$117 · open +$49
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,026
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses68 / 78
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions66
Markets (closed)146 / 212
History coverage81d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 66 History 146 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 77¢ 100¢ $79 $102 +$23 (+29%)
Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 96¢ 95¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 92¢ $61 $93 +$32 (+51%)
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 86¢ 91¢ $86 $91 +$5 (+6%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $86 $87 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan Pickford win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 89¢ $78 $80 +$2 (+3%)
Abstract FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No 95¢ 78¢ $86 $71 −$16 (-18%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 85¢ 86¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027? No 90¢ 95¢ $59 $62 +$3 (+5%)
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 84¢ 61¢ $84 $61 −$23 (-27%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+3%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 85¢ 92¢ $42 $46 +$4 (+9%)
Will Diogo Costa win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+3%)
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 92¢ 91¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 93¢ 91¢ $47 $45 −$1 (-3%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 90¢ $43 $45 +$2 (+4%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 89¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-5%)
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 90¢ 88¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 87¢ 87¢ $43 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 79¢ 84¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+6%)
Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 73¢ 82¢ $37 $42 +$4 (+12%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 72¢ 82¢ $36 $41 +$5 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 14 $79 +$16 +20%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $7 −$1 -16%
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 14 $68 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $64 −$11 -17%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $80 +$42 +53%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 12 $93 −$13 -14%
Betmoar FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -10%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 11 $29 −$6 -20%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +8%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $103 −$43 -42%
Ledger IPO before 2027? Jun 11 $17 −$5 -29%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +106%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $22 −$14 -64%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 10 $23 −$16 -68%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 09 $21 −$4 -18%
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 09 $129 −$5 -4%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 09 $97 +$11 +12%
Databricks IPO before 2027? May 04 $2 +$1 +52%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? May 04 $149 −$7 -5%
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 04 $38 +$1 +2%
Will New York Knicks advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 02 $18 +$1 +4%
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 02 $21 +$1 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $77 −$1 -2%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 01 $51 +$5 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $42 +$16 +37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $70 +$11 +15%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 01 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $31 +$29 +94%
Betmoar FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 01 $3 $0 -16%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NB May 01 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 20 Apr 30 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Apr 30 $35 −$1 -4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Apr 30 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Google reach $375 in April? Apr 29 $42 +$6 +15%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? Apr 29 $18 +$4 +24%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 29 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $6 −$6 -97%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 28 $65 −$11 -17%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $50 −$26 -54%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $46 $0 +1%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 25 $143 +$11 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 69% −$138
sports 8% +$11
tech 5% +$41
economics 4% +$3
politics 4% +$7
finance 4% +$47
crypto 3% −$38
world 3% −$2
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $95 23m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 44¢ $9 26m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 19¢ $6 27m
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 33m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 77¢ $71 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 79¢ $9 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 21¢ $7 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 42¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 82¢ $41 3h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 51¢ $26 4h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 89¢ $27 4h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 4h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5h
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY No 24¢ $13 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 11h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $47 13h
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 75¢ $95 14h
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 14h
Will Mike Maignan win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $25 16h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $70 16h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $43 17h
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $13 23h
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 28h
Ledger IPO closing market cap above $4B? BUY No 72¢ $18 30h
Will Jordan Pickford win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $44 33h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $45 33h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 33h
Will Diogo Costa win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $45 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -14.7% -22.8% 42% 25% -14.0%
≤30d 24 -14.7% -22.8% 42% 25% -14.0%
≤90d 146 +18.1% +6.8% 47% 24% -10.4%
all 146 +18.1% +6.8% 47% 24% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 24% -10.4%
10% -3.4% 19% -19.0%
15% -12.7% 14% -26.8%
20% -21.3% 10% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,026.26 · official $2,023.64 (match) · 750 history records