Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:28:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd990…4866 crypto 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$36,123 (-12%) realized −$36,123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%125W / 121L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,258per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,094
7 days+$2,094
14 days+$2,094
30 days+$2,094
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$22,428
sports 26% −$14,234
other 0% +$1,291
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +105.8% +86.2% 100% 100% +86.3%
≤30d 2 +105.8% +86.2% 100% 100% +86.3%
≤90d 13 -33.0% -39.4% 31% 31% -14.4%
all 246 +0.2% -9.3% 51% 50% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 50% -19.4%
10% -18.0% 47% -27.1%
15% -25.9% 44% -34.2%
20% -33.2% 37% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$1,235) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$663 vs −$977 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36,123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses125 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)246 / 246
History coverage166d
Avg bet$1,258
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 246 Trades
no open positions (59 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $990 +$1,291 +130%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $988 +$803 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 27 $1,147 −$1,130 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 27 $490 −$483 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 27 $784 −$290 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 27 $1,128 +$856 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 27 $352 +$311 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $388 −$19 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 27 $490 −$483 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 27 $490 −$483 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 27 $490 −$483 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 27 $98 −$97 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 27 $196 −$194 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 17 $196 +$86 +44%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 17 $490 +$453 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 17 $196 +$245 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 03 $588 −$588 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Mar 03 $577 −$568 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 10 $3,923 −$3,923 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 10 $3,922 −$1,945 -50%
76ers vs. Trail Blazers Feb 10 $19,610 +$15,373 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 10 $5,883 −$5,804 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 10 $3,684 −$3,628 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 10 $2,941 −$1,694 -58%
Thunder vs. Lakers Feb 10 $9,805 −$3,384 -34%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Feb 10 $19,610 −$10,187 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 03 $588 +$229 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 31 $1,471 −$1,448 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 31 $1,471 −$799 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 31 $980 −$343 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 31 $980 −$743 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 25 $980 −$980 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 25 $1,077 +$910 +84%
Celtics vs. Bulls Jan 25 $5,883 −$5,883 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 25 $490 −$344 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 25 $1,471 +$558 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 25 $1,177 −$544 -46%
Bulls vs. Timberwolves Jan 23 $4,433 −$4,433 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 23 $490 +$189 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 23 $980 −$592 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 23 $49 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 22 $980 +$663 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 22 $490 −$344 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 22 $490 −$162 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 22 $490 +$183 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 22 $675 −$267 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 22 $1,392 +$996 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 22 $1,775 +$936 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 22 $1,669 −$1,647 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 22 $867 +$835 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $2,281 30m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $990 50m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $1,791 51m
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $988 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $187 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $303 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $490 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $656 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $294 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $504 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $490 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $637 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $663 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $352 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 27? SELL Yes 72¢ $370 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $491 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $490 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $490 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $490 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 75¢ $388 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $98 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $196 85d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $282 95d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $98 95d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $98 95d
Lakers vs. Rockets SELL Lakers 94¢ $943 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $441 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $196 95d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 49¢ $490 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $588 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 785 history records