Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:40:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd98f…95b2 politics 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$1
other 44% $0
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
all 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage114d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $83 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $83 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $83 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $83 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $83 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $85 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $85 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $85 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $85 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $85 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $85 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 12 $85 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $85 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $85 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 03 $85 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $83 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $83 25h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $83 18d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $83 19d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $83 23d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $83 24d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $83 28d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $83 28d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 36d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 37d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $83 40d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $83 41d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $83 42d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $14 43d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $70 43d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $83 49d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $84 50d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $85 67d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $85 68d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $85 69d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $85 70d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $85 71d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $85 71d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $85 77d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $85 77d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 100¢ $85 86d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $85 87d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $85 95d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $85 95d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $85 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records