Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:49:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd98b…09bd world 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$29 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%21W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$13
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$13
politics 17% $0
sports 15% −$11
other 13% −$3
finance 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -8.4% -17.2% 21% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 68 -3.5% -12.7% 29% 1% -10.1%
all 70 -3.4% -12.6% 30% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 3% -10.5%
10% -20.9% 1% -19.1%
15% -28.6% 1% -26.9%
20% -35.6% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses21 / 49
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage490d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 47¢ $29 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $58 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $13 −$11 -87%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $25 −$1 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $60 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $51 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $44 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $65 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $5 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $18 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $40 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $58 −$3 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $38 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $45 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $82 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $5 −$2 -35%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $43 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $86 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $79 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $29 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $16 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $6 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $10 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $31 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $31 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $19 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $22 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $6 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $12 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $12 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $28 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 4¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 31¢ $13 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $23 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $16 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $39 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 35¢ $23 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 37¢ $21 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.46 · official $29.14 (match) · 292 history records