Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D9 0xd98a…4db0 world 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,290 (-18%) realized −$2,271 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$809per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$5,426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$233
14 days−$2,267
30 days−$2,267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% −$2,276
other 16% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.8% -6.1% 80% 20% -4.8%
≤30d 7 -25.9% -32.9% 57% 14% -38.8%
≤90d 7 -25.9% -32.9% 57% 14% -38.8%
all 7 -25.9% -32.9% 57% 14% -38.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 14% -38.8%
10% -39.4% 0% -44.7%
15% -45.2% 0% -50.0%
20% -50.6% 0% -54.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$847 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$5,426
Realized−$2,271
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)7 / 16
History coverage10d
Avg bet$809
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 87¢ 92¢ $1,200 $1,266 +$66 (+6%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $906 $901 −$5 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 92¢ $800 $804 +$4 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 82¢ 77¢ $820 $768 −$51 (-6%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $494 $488 −$6 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 89¢ $500 $472 −$28 (-6%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $392 $391 −$0 (-0%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $258 $258 +$0 (+0%)
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 20 $1,298 +$29 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $800 +$12 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $900 +$13 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 19 $500 −$42 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $1,000 +$220 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $76 1h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $392 1h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $661 1h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $245 1h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $259 1h
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $494 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $820 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1,327 2h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $812 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $367 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $83 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $18 13h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 89¢ $458 40h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $698 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $600 10d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $800 10d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 97¢ $500 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $800 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $1,000 10d
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,200 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1,000 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,000 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $900 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1,500 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,425.82 · official $5,421.48 (match) · 26 history records