Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd988…1141 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate23%11W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$13
other 33% +$2
politics 7% +$2
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.2% -13.3% 0% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 19 -2.8% -12.0% 5% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 19 -2.8% -12.0% 5% 0% -11.1%
all 48 -2.6% -11.8% 23% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 2% -10.3%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.9%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses11 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage375d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $22 −$4 -20%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $8 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $59 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $94 −$2 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $44 −$6 -13%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $102 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $67 +$1 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $12 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $71 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -7%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $61 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $59 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Jan 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 14 $7 +$1 +20%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $24 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 23 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 23 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $4 $0 -11%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the US add 200k or more jobs in June? Jul 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 02 $17 $0 -2%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 02 $19 $0 -1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Jul 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 01 $21 $0 -1%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 01 $21 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 29 $21 $0 -2%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $47 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $55 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $50 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $50 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $6 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $2 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $39 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $12 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 81¢ $30 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 81¢ $6 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $44 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $0.00 (match) · 174 history records