Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D9 0xd986…7841 crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$12 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$175
14 days+$175
30 days+$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$207
other 24% +$79
sports 3% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +29.8% +17.5% 75% 75% +2.0%
≤30d 8 +29.8% +17.5% 75% 75% +2.0%
≤90d 8 +29.8% +17.5% 75% 75% +2.0%
all 42 -10.4% -18.9% 50% 50% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 50% -10.3%
10% -26.7% 48% -18.9%
15% -33.8% 43% -26.7%
20% -40.3% 29% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$105 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage155d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $55 $53 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $51 +$68 +134%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $251 −$251 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $51 +$76 +149%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $392 +$66 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $269 +$123 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $182 +$87 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $125 +$57 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 03 $70 −$69 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 03 $500 −$494 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 03 $350 +$212 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 03 $250 +$108 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 03 $350 −$345 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 03 $250 +$102 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 03 $105 −$103 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 03 $70 −$66 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 03 $50 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 03 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 03 $120 −$118 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 03 $100 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 03 $120 −$118 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 03 $50 +$72 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 01 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 01 $200 +$562 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 01 $95 −$94 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 01 $55 +$39 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 01 $108 −$106 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 01 $60 +$46 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 01 $35 +$26 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 01 $100 −$65 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 01 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 01 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 01 $48 +$28 +58%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: West Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Feb 25 $280 +$221 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Feb 25 $150 +$128 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Feb 25 $86 +$71 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Feb 25 $70 +$16 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 05 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 05 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $119 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 42¢ $51 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $56 3h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 47¢ $51 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $251 23h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 99¢ $127 23h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 39¢ $51 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $457 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $392 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $392 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $118 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $182 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $182 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $125 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $70 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $500 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $562 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $350 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $358 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $250 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $350 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $352 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $250 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $105 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $3 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $70 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $74 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $50 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.94 · official $52.94 (match) · 72 history records