Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:14:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D9 0xd984…ab56 world 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$9 (+13%) realized +$13 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% +$11
other 7% $0
crypto 3% −$2
politics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +32.0% +19.5% 100% 100% +19.5%
≤30d 4 +25.5% +13.5% 100% 75% +12.6%
≤90d 10 +51.9% +37.4% 80% 60% +29.4%
all 11 +47.2% +33.2% 73% 55% +24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.2% 55% +24.3%
10% +20.4% 45% +12.4%
15% +8.8% 18% +1.5%
20% -1.9% 9% -8.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.72 per $1 lost it wins $5.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)11 / 17
History coverage112d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Yes 84¢ 95¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 89¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 66¢ 59¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 12¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 9¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$3 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $2 +$11 +565%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? Apr 26 $6 $0 +4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 22 $4 +$1 +34%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $1 $0 +14%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting? Feb 25 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 9m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 65¢ $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 61¢ $1 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 4h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 17h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 20h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $5 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $5 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 66¢ $5 35d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 89¢ $5 35d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 35d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 36d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 49d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 54d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 66d
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March BUY Yes 7¢ $1 88d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $1 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 109d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 109d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting? SELL No 31¢ $5 109d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting? BUY No 31¢ $5 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.64 · official $22.65 (match) · 36 history records