Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:29:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd97f…e8b8 crypto 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$14 (-11%) realized −$19 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$17
other 9% $0
weather 5% +$2
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -11.7% -20.1% 51% 49% -24.4%
≤30d 35 -11.7% -20.1% 51% 49% -24.4%
≤90d 35 -11.7% -20.1% 51% 49% -24.4%
all 45 -16.6% -24.5% 47% 42% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 42% -25.0%
10% -31.7% 33% -32.2%
15% -38.3% 31% -38.7%
20% -44.4% 27% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)45 / 62
History coverage154d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+244%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 5¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+167%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+138%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 64¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 6¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 81¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 12 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 12 $12 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 12 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 12 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 12 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 12 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 20h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.16 · official $20.16 (match) · 114 history records