Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:48:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd979…6f8a crypto 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 690d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$552 (-2%) realized −$553 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate50%51W / 51L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$914now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% +$5
crypto 16% +$6
other 12% −$843
sports 7% +$248
world 6% +$27
finance 0% −$7
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -10.6% -19.1% 31% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 25 -8.2% -16.9% 20% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 42 -7.2% -16.0% 26% 0% -10.4%
all 102 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 12% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 12% -11.0%
10% -17.8% 12% -19.5%
15% -25.7% 10% -27.3%
20% -33.0% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$45 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

690d coverage
Net worth$914
Realized−$553
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses51 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)102 / 108
History coverage690d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $190 $189 −$1 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $187 $187 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 18? Jun 18 $3 $0 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $36 −$2 -6%
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? Jun 18 $37 $0 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 18 $3 $0 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $21 −$2 -8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $76 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 18 $140 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 18 $199 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $89 $0 +0%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c May 30 $10 $0 -2%
Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $2.75B and $3 May 30 $46 −$2 -5%
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be at least $3B at market close on I May 30 $4 $0 -8%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? May 30 $4 $0 -2%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d May 30 $1 $0 -1%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close May 30 $10 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 30 $111 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 30 $34 −$1 -4%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 30 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 14 $120 $0 +0%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $82 −$5 -6%
Will the S&P 500 (SPX) close at 6900–7000 on April 8? Apr 08 $0 $0 -31%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $3 $0 +0%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $16 −$2 -12%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $5 $0 +0%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $5 −$1 -10%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $0 $0 -0%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 08 $4 $0 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Apr 08 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 08 $150 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 08 $199 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 20? Mar 22 $18 −$6 -35%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 20 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar Mar 20 $62 −$3 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23 Mar 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 20 $140 $0 +0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 08 $279 −$15 -5%
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? Mar 08 $192 −$53 -28%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 08 $197 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 08 $150 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Mar 08 $119 +$101 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 18? SELL No 38¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $34 1h
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? SELL Yes 91¢ $36 1h
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 1h
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 1h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL No 16¢ $3 1h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY No 17¢ $3 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 18? BUY No 43¢ $2 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 18? BUY No 43¢ $1 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $3 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $3 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $18 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 38¢ $39 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 38¢ $37 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $76 2h
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $190 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $98 2h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $90 2h
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 18d
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 19d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $89 19d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $98 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $913.65 · official $913.65 (match) · 953 history records