Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd978…8bed crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$93 (-5%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$188
7 days+$47
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$38
crypto 24% +$135
politics 14% −$240
sports 10% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -10.0% -18.5% 32% 32% -5.8%
≤30d 50 -10.0% -18.5% 32% 32% -5.8%
≤90d 50 -10.0% -18.5% 32% 32% -5.8%
all 51 -11.7% -20.1% 31% 31% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 31% -22.4%
10% -27.8% 27% -29.8%
15% -34.7% 25% -36.6%
20% -41.1% 20% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$22 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 35
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)51 / 58
History coverage135d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+5%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +42%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$2 -16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$79 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$23 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$23 +23%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 +$18 +20%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$23 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$28 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$39 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$24 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$235 +1104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$17 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +108%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $68 −$54 -79%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$7 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $87 −$86 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$35 +86%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $50 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 5h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 7h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 7h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $52 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.02 · official $205.03 (match) · 103 history records