Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd976…46dc other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$13 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$27
sports 15% −$10
politics 2% $0
culture 1% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -11.0% -19.5% 44% 41% -7.5%
≤30d 34 -11.0% -19.5% 44% 41% -7.5%
≤90d 34 -11.0% -19.5% 44% 41% -7.5%
all 34 -11.0% -19.5% 44% 41% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 41% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 38% -16.3%
15% -34.2% 29% -24.4%
20% -40.7% 15% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 39
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $40 $53 +$13 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 +$5 +15%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $2 +$1 +48%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -99%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +45%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 -4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +144%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 $0 -22%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +33%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 6 or more songs in Billboard top 10 for week Jun 17 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -50%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $1 $0 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 94¢ $41 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $35 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 58¢ $35 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $12 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $18 19h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $2 20h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $9 22h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $1 22h
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $1 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $15 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 51¢ $5 26h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1 27h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 25¢ $1 41h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 41h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 41h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.00 · official $52.34 (match) · 73 history records