Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:17:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D9 0xd96f…7883 politics 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$430 (+0%) realized +$430 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate14%23W / 142L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,789per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$34
14 days−$75
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$190
other 32% +$955
sports 10% −$369
world 2% −$10
culture 2% −$8
economics 1% −$2
finance 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 50 +4.1% -5.8% 12% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 109 +2.4% -7.4% 9% 6% -9.3%
all 165 -3.0% -12.3% 14% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 10% -9.4%
10% -20.7% 10% -18.1%
15% -28.3% 10% -26.0%
20% -35.4% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,666) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$12 · ×7.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized+$430
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses23 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,789
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $187 $187 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $4,279 −$4 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 23 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 23 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $4,961 −$5 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3,325 −$5 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,068 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $3,367 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,769 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $6,938 −$8 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,213 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,554 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,572 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $3,055 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,271 −$3 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $162 +$1 +1%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $6,494 −$7 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,515 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,501 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,081 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $6,318 −$7 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,305 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,319 −$2 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $3,685 −$6 -0%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $85 +$60 +70%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,733 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,447 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $7,437 −$10 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,666 −$4 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $46 +$62 +134%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,899 −$4 -0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $59 +$62 +105%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,281 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,355 −$6 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,244 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $860 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $684 +$2 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $890 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $4,015 −$4 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 28 $2,294 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $3,951 −$5 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,188 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $628 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $628 2h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $774 19h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $775 21h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $638 21h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $638 23h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $841 24h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $842 27h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $602 42h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $603 44h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $664 45h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $187 45h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $666 47h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $429 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $430 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $255 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $255 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $563 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $564 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,239 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,241 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,203 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,205 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,211 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,213 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,565 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,567 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,385 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,387 8d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,570 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.86 · official $186.86 (match) · 629 history records